Downward trend for Rixi Moncada in the Honduran electoral arena

The latest voting intention polls show an unexpected turn in the Honduran presidential race. The ruling party’s candidate, Rixi Moncada, has suffered a sustained decline in opinion polls, posing new challenges for the Liberty and Refoundation Party (LIBRE) in its bid to remain in power in the general elections scheduled for November 30.

Continuous drop in voting preferences

Statistics provided by research companies like Paradigma, Pro-Encuestas, and national news organizations such as HCH indicate a significant drop in backing for the candidate of the ruling party. The Paradigma survey, carried out from May 4 to 17, shows Moncada securing just 11.3% of the votes, falling behind Salvador Nasralla from the Liberal Party (25.6%) and Nasry Asfura from the National Party (21.2%). In that same survey, 13.9% of respondents mentioned they were undecided.

Meanwhile, the Pro-Encuestas study from June 5 to 7 shows a slight uptick for Moncada, with 28.5%, although again behind Asfura (36.3%) and Nasralla (34.2%). Meanwhile, HCH reported on June 12 that Moncada’s voting intention was around 16%, while Asfura registered 45%, with Nasralla in the range between 25% and 35%.

This drop differs from the March data, when the TResearch survey showed Moncada with roughly 44.9% voter support. The variation signifies a notable fall in under three months, amidst a political atmosphere characterized by intense rivalry and increasing voter fragmentation.

Redrawing of the political landscape

The change in electoral preferences reflects not only the weakening of the ruling party’s candidate, but also the strengthening of the opposition leaders. Nasralla and Asfura consistently appear above Moncada in all recent polls, pointing to a reconfiguration of the political landscape ahead of November.

In this case, the proportion of voters who have not made a decision continues to be a critical element. Even though some new surveys do not mention these individuals, figures from May indicate that nearly one out of every seven voters is still unsure about their choice. This unpredictability in voter sentiment allows for potential shifts in the present direction, based on how successful the campaigns are in the concluding phase.

Responses and approaches of the governing party

In light of these findings, the LIBRE party has started reevaluating its stance. Party representatives blame the drop in polls on what they describe as “misinformation efforts” by opposing groups. Nonetheless, the leadership acknowledges the necessity for immediate strategic revisions, such as transformations in the political messaging, the campaign team, and the methods of engaging with voters.

Half a year ahead of the elections, the governing party faces the challenge of not just reclaiming ground from its adversaries, but also of reconstructing a stronger foundation of support amid increasing competition. The leeway is diminishing as the election schedule progresses, and the next few weeks will be crucial in deciding whether Moncada’s candidacy can reestablish itself or if the current trajectory solidifies.

An unfolding situation with underlying frictions

The election scene in Honduras is moving toward a more competitive race than was anticipated at the start of the year. The decline in backing for the candidate of the governing party, the emergence of opposition groups, and the influence of undecided voters cast doubt on the political system’s capability to manage the increasing electoral enthusiasm.

The progress of the campaigns, the official reaction to potential conflicts, and public involvement will be crucial elements in a process that is emerging as an important assessment for the nation’s democratic steadiness.