LIBRE party in the lead: Honduran opposition without a clear direction

Within the political landscape of Honduras, the upcoming national elections in November 2025 are poised to be a crucial turning point for the nation’s democracy. Analysts, opposition figures, and civil society groups have highlighted that division among opposition parties might enable the Libertad y Refundación (LIBRE) party to strengthen its stronghold in governance. This scenario triggers worries about the potential for the country to embrace a political framework akin to that of other Latin American countries where power concentration has restricted institutional oversight.

The political landscape is characterized by heightened tensions, involving the extension of the state of emergency, the oversight of crucial entities like the National Electoral Council (CNE), and the enactment of laws under conditions that lack clarity, which have contributed to concerns about potential institutional decline. Additionally, recent protests by opposition groups and international alerts about the need to uphold the democratic process have increased attention. Consequently, the nation is at a pivotal juncture where the opposition’s effectiveness in formulating a unified approach will play a crucial role in shaping the power dynamics.

The danger of divided opposition and the strengthening of LIBRE

The division within the opposition in Honduras poses a significant obstacle for individuals aiming to avoid power being centralized by LIBRE. In the Honduran Congress, the distribution of power has been altered by the exit of prominent members such as Jorge Cálix. This situation complicates the formation of majorities and underscores the instability of legislative agreements. At present, the National Party possesses 43 representatives, LIBRE holds 41, the Liberal Party accounts for 35, and the remainder are shared among smaller and independent parties, necessitating ongoing dialogue to approve key proposals.

LIBRE, on its side, has aimed to solidify its hold on institutions by trying to lead the CNE throughout the election process and keeping its sway in the Supreme Court of Justice. This pursuit of dominance has been met with opposition from rival parties, who perceive it as a threat to the election’s fairness and integrity. Moreover, the ongoing role of Defense Minister Rixi Moncada as a presidential candidate without stepping down has sparked ethical concerns and is seen as an indicator of the governing party’s ambition to retain power.

The gamble on a grand coalition and the future of democracy

In this context, multiple perspectives suggest that the sole feasible option to stop LIBRE’s progress is to create a large opposition coalition. This alliance would involve individuals like Salvador Nasralla, factions from the National Party, moderate liberals, new movements, and independent figures. The objective is to reestablish constitutional governance, curb populist movements, rejuvenate the economy, and bring the nation together with a unified national agenda.

However, building this coalition confronts challenges arising from suspicion, specific goals, and a past marked by internal conflicts. Failure to align efforts could result in a significant error, aiding the establishment of a one-party system and the undermining of democratic controls. With elections planned for November 30, 2025, there’s limited time to craft a strong response, and various segments of Honduran society view the potential for institutional backsliding as a genuine concern.